The Wagner "Revolt"

Was the Wagner Group "revolt" a masterful psyop, a legitimate coup attempt against Moscow, or something in between?

Wagner PMC Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin (Lev Borodin/TASS)

On June 23, Wagner Group Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin released an unhinged and strange video in which he claimed that the entire reason for Russia’s war in Ukraine had been built on lies. Although he didn’t specify what these lies were, he went on to make rather odd and unusual claims. For instance, he said that various Russian leaders and oligarchs “plundered” the Donbas region during the time of the Kyiv-instigated war. Later on in his irascible rant, Prigozhin further criticized the Russian war effort, claiming that the war is being fought on behalf of Russian oligarchs and that the war has been fraught with the murder of civilians. Shortly thereafter, Prigozhin made a wild claim that the Russian army ordered a “missile strike” on Wagner troops, which, according to him, killed a “huge number of Wagner fighters.”

Despite the fact that Prigozhin’s claim of an attack on his soldiers was blatantly false, he and the Wagner Group began what they dubbed a “march for justice” to address their many grievances against the Russian state and, in particular, the Russian Ministry of Defense (MOD). More accurately, Prigozhin purportedly aimed to address his grievances against Minister of Defense Sergey Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, both of whom Prigozhin has had a longstanding feud with.

Soon after the “march for justice” was announced by the Wagner Group, Russian General Sergey Surovikin pleaded with the private military organization to “stop the columns” and to “obey the supreme commander.” General Surovikin, a highly talented general and military strategist who was instrumental in coordinating the battle of Bakhmut, was the first notable government official to condemn Wagner’s actions and plead with them to stop. “I appeal to the leadership, commanders, and fighters of PMC Wagner: Together with you, we walked a difficult path. Together with you, we fought, we took risks, we took losses, but overcome together. We are warriors. I call on you to stop,” Surovikin said.

If this was a coup, Prigozhin wasn’t receiving the answers he was looking for. At this time and until the end of his “mutiny,” he had virtually no support from any officers within the national government, military, or citizenry for that matter. Nevertheless, he carried on with his dangerous and foolish charade.

Without firing a shot, Prigozhin’s forces and tanks soon rolled into Rostov-on-Don, the scene of Russia’s theater command for all Russian forces. The images and videos of the many Wagner tanks sporting the red “Z” marking spread like wildfire throughout the internet. Remarkable scenes soon emanated from the streets of Rostov. The city’s sweepers carried on with their jobs as if nothing significant had taken place. Soldiers were walking into the nearby restaurants to order food. Citizens in the area posed for photos atop the tanks, hoping to cement their place in history. In some instances, Rostov residents were seen engaging in intense dialogue with Wagner fighters, no doubt questioning the absurdity of their motives and intentions.

In other tense discussions while in Rostov that evening, Prigozhin met with Deputy Defense Minister Yanus Evkurov and Deputy Head of the military intelligence directorate Vladimir Alekseev for talks. Despite there being no clear information as to what exactly these individuals discussed, the conversation was no doubt mired in heavy disagreement and confusion.

On the following day, June 24, news broke that a detachment of Wagner convoys was approaching Moscow. Prigozhin vowed to eliminate any obstacles in the way of his army’s advancement. Chechen forces were sent by Moscow to the vicinity of Rostov, where the rest of Wagner’s soldiers were located. At the time, it seemed as if a direct confrontation between Wagner and the Russian state was imminent. Soon enough, Wagner’s forces shot down two Russian aircraft, killing both crews on board. Ultimately, these killings would be the only fatalities in the “uprising.”

Amidst the confusion and chaos, Russian President Vladimir Putin released a video address from the Kremlin denouncing Prigozhin’s shenanigans as a “criminal adventure, pushed towards a serious crime of armed mutiny” and a “betrayal” of the Russian people. Putin called on the collaborators to withdraw their support from the “armed mutiny” and go home. If they didn’t comply, Putin warned that his response would be “brutal” and that the betrayers would be “punished inevitably.”

After a while, Wagner halted its advance toward Moscow. A deal had been struck between Putin and Prigozhin with the assistance of Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko, a man whom Prigozhin has known for 20 years. According to the arrangement, Prigozhin would have his criminal case against him dropped and be exiled to Belarus. Wagner soldiers who had participated in the events would not be charged and would instead be sent back to their standard operations in Ukraine. Those who did not participate would leave Wagner Group and sign contracts with the Russian military. Additionally, the Lukashenko-brokered deal included “security guarantees” for Wagner fighters.

The purported “coup” was over before it truly began. In the aftermath of these tumultuous 24 hours, Prigozhin issued a statement clarifying why he ultimately decided to halt the convoys destined for Moscow. “There were two crucial factors behind our decision to turn back,” he said. “The first was that we didn’t want to shed Russian blood. The second was that we marched to demonstrate our opposition, not to overthrow the government.” Further, he iterated that his goal “wasn’t to overthrow” Putin or “the legally elected authorities.” In the end, Wagner ultimately “turned around to avoid spilling the blood of Russian soldiers.”

Prigozhin and Wagner

Yevgeny Prigozhin, first and foremost, is a businessman. He is not a military leader, nor does he carry with him any experience whatsoever on the battlefield. Intense and rambunctious, he wields an irascible temper, which more often than not gets the better of him. Prigozhin is also a man who undoubtedly has political ambitions, given the extraordinary number of times he felt the need to publicly comment on various political and military situations surrounding the war in Ukraine.

In 2014, he founded the Wagner Group, a private military organization ultimately loyal to the Russian state. Wagner first saw action in the Donbas after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. The mercenary force’s influence then extended to the battlefields in Libya, Syria, the Central African Republic, Mali, and numerous other countries. To put it mildly, Prigozhin was raking in cash from his newest business.

As the war in Ukraine kicked off, Prigozhin recruited tens of thousands of fighters to join Wagner, many of them convicts who were promised freedom if they served a specific amount of time on the frontlines. The battlefield in Bakhmut was where Wagner and Prigozhin earned their fame. Ultimately securing victory, Wagner suffered immense casualties, although Ukraine’s forces suffered far more. The Battle of Bakhmut was a bloody but decisive victory for the Russians, and the Wagner Group played a central role in that achievement.

Before the mutiny, Wagner was extraordinarily popular in Russia. Deservingly so, when considering the enormity of the sacrifice Wagner endured for the Russian war effort. Prigozhin was significantly popular among the Russian population as well, and he still is to some extent. On the other hand, Wagner’s boss became an annoyance and a headache for the Russian high command. Over time, Prigozhin became a regular public critic of senior Russian leaders, consistently criticizing them for either supposed incompetence or malpractice. An infamous incident in the weeks before Bakhmut was conquered encapsulates how Prigozhin’s antics surely irritated the government.

In early May, Prigozhin released a video in which he railed against Minister of Defense Sergey Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov for not providing Wagner fighters with enough munitions. In the video, he hurled a plethora of insults and profanities directed at Shoigu and Gerasimov as he showed a multitude of fallen Wagner fighters in the background. “The bastards that don’t give us ammunition will eat their f—ing guts in hell!” Prigozhin shouted.

In addition, Prigozhin threatened to pull his troops out of Bakhmut if Wagner’s demands for more ammunition were not met. According to various analyses, this was one of the many psychological games Prigozhin played to distract and confuse the enemy. Obviously, Wagner didn’t pull its troops out or exit the battlefield until victory was firmly in Russia’s hands. But the open hostility between Prigozhin and the MOD was very real.

The tension between Prigozhin and the MOD reached a boiling point when the latter ordered Wagner fighters to sign contracts with it before July 1. Putin endorsed the move. This, of course, was a direct threat to Prigozhin’s business, as Wagner was facing direct absorption into the Russian military. According to Prigozhin, the MOD’s concerted push to force Wagner troops to sign contracts with the regular army was at the core of why they marched on Rostov. That, along with his incessant pining for the removal of Shoigu and Gerasimov from power.

The Reaction from the West and Its Allies

As Russia seemingly descended into a possible domestic conflict, Western politicians, analysts, and propagandists further obliterated their credibility by spinning the events as an actual “civil war” that was sure to completely destabilize Russia and produce regime change against Putin. “Russia is sliding into what can only be described as a civil war,” empire propagandist Anne Applebaum wrote in The Atlantic. “If you are surprised, maybe you shouldn’t be,” she wrote hours before the “coup” had ended.

Former American Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, too, predicted an imminent civil war. “So, there’s going to be a big fight,” he wrote on Twitter. Speaking on President Putin’s whereabouts, McFaul stated, “I am sure that he is no longer in Moscow.” McFaul said assuredly, “This is now a civil war.” For his part, McFaul later admitted he was way off course. “I was wrong about this. Eager to learn why,” he said sadly.

“The man from the Kremlin is obviously very afraid and probably hiding somewhere, not showing himself,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on June 24. French President Emmanuel Macron underscored “the divisions that exist within the Russian camp, and the fragility of both its military and its auxiliary forces.” Ironic, given that France is currently so dangerously divided from within.

Once the affair came to a close and Prigozhin stood down, Western officials took to highlighting the supposed “weakness” displayed by Moscow. “It was a direct challenge to Putin’s authority… It shows real cracks,” Blinken said in a CBS interview. “I think what we’re seeing in Russia over the last days demonstrates the fragility of the regime, and, of course, it is a demonstration of weakness,” NATO Chief Jens Stoltenberg said. UK Foreign Minister James Cleverly agreed, adding that Prigozhin’s actions were an “unprecedented challenge to President Putin’s authority.”

After months of portraying Wagner as an incompetent and weak fighting force unable to defeat Ukrainian troops, pro-Ukraine Twitter accounts suddenly believed that the private mercenary force could topple the Russian state. In stark contrast to depicting Prigozhin as a murderous war criminal, they cheered him on as some sort of “freedom-fighting” hero who would be a welcome change from Putin, the man they hate above everyone else.

A Psyop or a Legitimate Coup?

In my estimation, the Wagner revolt was neither a psyop (Psychological Operation) nor a legitimate coup attempt against Putin. As for the idea that this was somehow a “coup d'état,” the notion that Prigozhin and Wagner could’ve somehow bypassed 200 miles on the way to Moscow unscathed through tens of thousands of Russian troops is absurd on multiple levels. Prigozhin had to have known that in order to oust Putin, he and his force would have to face the Russian Army and 140 million Russians first. Putin is incredibly popular in Russia. The Russian Armed Forces and the Russian people would never let Putin’s forced removal occur. This cannot be overstated. But, as Prigozhin stated, he never wanted to overthrow Putin.

Regarding the psyop scenario, it seems plausible in some respects but is ultimately highly unlikely. If this was planned, Prigozhin and Putin gained no discernible benefit other than possibly drawing out a few traitors within. Even that produced no valuable outcome, as virtually every domestic Russian leader affirmed their unequivocal support for Putin and his government. On the other hand, the entire situation reflected poorly on Russia. Prigozhin murdered Russian troops and seemingly got away with it by being exiled to nearby Belarus.

Prigozhin no doubt aimed to save his business and garner the attention of Putin. His insane approach, however, helped him in no way whatsoever. In the first respect, Prigozhin and his men “were categorically opposed” to the plans of the Defense Ministry to integrate Wagner into its ranks. Purportedly, their “march for justice” was to bring this further into the light.

As for garnering Putin’s attention regarding the removal of Shoigu and Gerasimov from power, Prigozhin aimed to enact these changes as well. A longstanding critic of the two, Prigozhin regularly lambasts them for weakness and inaction. Prigozhin, in contrast to Putin’s inner cabinet, is a man who wants to bring the war to a close and crush the enemy. He views Shoigu and Gerasimov as men who are misleading Putin about the war. Prigozhin previously called for a full war mobilization of Russia, underscoring his impatient attitude about ending the war. For now, no changes have been made in the Russian high command, and it was later reported that Prigozhin “dropped” his demand for removing Shoigu and Gerasimov while in the midst of negotiating.

That said, Putin handled the whole affair with a calm and reserved approach. Within 24 hours, the so-called “rebellion” had ended without much violence erupting. As Wagner’s forces poured into Rostov, and even after Prigozhin’s fighters fired on their fellow comrades up above, Putin exuded coolness and composure. In the end, Putin is more popular than ever, and Russia is more united than ever before.